Tuesday, May 30, 2006


A Schelling Incident is not a signal that tells a person what to do.

It is a signal that tells a person what other people will probably do.

First things first.

"A significant number of the crowd's members must expect and desire that the crowd will become riotous. That is, there has to be a critical mass of people in the crowd who are making accurate judgments, not about their own desires and intentions, but about the riotous desires and intentions of other members of the crowd." (Here: http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj14n1-13.html)

A plate glass window might break; someone might be pulled from the crowd and beaten; someone might throw a placard at the police line. These are known as 'Schelling Incidents' and they tell the riot-friendly in the not-quite-a-riot-yet that others who are equally riot-friendly are galled enough to turn the riot into a riot.


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